Coin tossing is probably one of the most well known random process. Everyone at some point in their life would have tossed a coin to aid some kind of decision. If a fair coin is tossed nine (9) times and all of them turn out to be Heads. What do you expect the chance of the tenth toss to be a Head?
50/50 seems to be a popular answer. I am more inclined to believe that the 10th toss would be a Tail because the coin is probably not "fair" as we were told and so we could be looking at an outlier.
I finished write up a manuscript based on readings I have done in the last few months. The tentative title is called "Towards an organic view of risk management". The term "organic" has nothing to do with molecular biology (no DNA is involved). It is used to distinguish a view of financial risk that is different from the traditional Cartesian view and how it is related to robust financial risk management. This is going to be an on-going work that I envision would take longer term to mature. (I think of this work as a highly speculative but high return kind of investment.) This would be something I would continue to rethink and verify on a regular basis.
For October, I plan to start working on business valuation on some public companies on TSX and publish some research summaries based on readings in Quant literature. I would aim for weekly update on this blog.
I have been mentoring two students in the past. Both of them are expected to graduate this coming year. One of them would be heading to Vancouver Filming School to pursue a career in stage and prop design. The other student had an interview with Microsoft this week for a software development position (and it looks like the interviewer likes him). The young mind is a wonderful thing. They often appear as immature and fragile. But once you nurture and fuel them with hope and confident, they would blossom into a beautiful thing.
To summarize, folks in the Comfort Zone lie to themselves to make them feel better about their situation. Steady income to fulfill the basic human needs is indeed important but there is something more important in life - to seek and live ones passion. Many folks in the Comfort Zone know what their passion is but end up not living it - until its too late. Continuing to lie to oneself will mean that you end up becoming the person that you didn't want to become.Trust is an important thing in life. In the article, Danny trusted and defended a former employee of his company, but ended up being betrayed by this employee and Danny woke up to realize that one bad apple has been spoiling the whole basket (his whole team).
